Observers Predict Christie Will Deliver “Doomsday Budget” Tomorrow
A new survey of approximately 100 association management, media, government affairs, academic and business professionals who are close observers of the workings of state government was released for the first time today in anticipation of Governor Chris Christie’s budget address tomorrow. The survey, Capitol Insights, does not include anyone who holds an elected or appointed position or a job in state government and is a joint project of NJBIZ, The Rebovich Institute for NJ Politics at Rider University, and Kaufman Zita Group, a Princeton based public affairs consulting firm. It was conducted March 9-11, 2010.
The survey, the full results of which can be viewed here, is unlike other opinion polls that seek the opinions of voters or residents of the Garden State. This survey taps into the minds of those who spend their days working with or understanding the complex problems facing decision makers and the relationships that often shape the ultimate outcomes. A full listing of the survey’s “Panel of Experts” can be viewed on the website.
NJBIZ Editor Sharon Waters said, “This poll gives the average New Jerseyan an idea of the what the ‘experts’ think is going to happen. Most of our participants earn their living understanding what’s going on in Trenton. The results of our survey represent the conventional wisdom of these insiders.”
Our panel of experts is divided on the extent to which spending will be reduced. While nearly 80% of them expect Governor Christie to sign a budget by June 30, only 17.5% were willing to predict that there would be no repeat of the government shut-down that resulted from the budget impasse in 2006. 72% predict that the legislature will send the governor bills raising both the income and corporate business tax rates.
“Experienced political insiders generally assume that no one in Trenton gets everything they want. So it shouldn’t be surprising to see that over 70% of our poll’s participants believe that some form of business tax surcharge will be included in the budget passed by the legislature, even though Governor Christie has said he won’t include it in his proposal,” noted Rebovich Institute Director Ben Dworkin.
“The good news is insiders universally believe the budget will be smaller next year. The bad news is that two-thirds of our experts think there won’t be any direct property tax relief, aka a rebate check, for anyone but seniors, veterans and the disabled,” added Tom Wilson, a Partner at Kaufman Zita Group and the former Republican State Chairman.
Respondents were also asked to rate the relationships between Gov. Christie, Senate President Sweeney and Speaker Oliver on a scale of 1 to 10 with “1 being diametrically opposed, confrontational and cold and 10 being totally in-synch, cooperative, and cordial.” Our panel of experts said the relationship between Sweeney and Oliver was strongest giving it an average rating of 6.3, the Christie-Sweeney relationship received an average rating of 5.6, and the Christie-Oliver relationship was given an average rating of 4.2.
To see what our panelists predict the headlines will read after Christie’s budget address, how many Republicans and Democrats will vote for the final budget bill, and the rest of our results, visit www.capitolinsightsnj.com.
